Thursday, May 12, 2016

Post Paris - My Take

I posted this on Linkedin 16 December 2015



Optimists estimate the Paris Accord will reduce from business as usual ~6C warming to 'well below 2 with measures taken towards achieving 1.5' (the target in the accord, paraphrased from memory). Lowball estimates (eg. Bjorn Lomborg) are that it will have an effect of 0.05C. The truth will no doubt lie somewhere between these two, and no doubt does not depend on the accord alone, but if/how it is followed up in practice. Note that even the denialist estimates 0.05C, so yes, it will have an effect. The chance of keeping the world below 2C warming is, however, in my opinion, almost nil, we will fail to hit that target the same way we will fail to achieve any of the 'sustainable development goals' - these are really mostly unachievable aspirational targets that seek to catalyze progress in the right direction. The mood is very positive, and such positivity can be a good catalyst. Indeed, the biggest win was one of politics. The UN works. Countries are unified. THis political capital could be squandered (as GWBush famously did in his second term) or could, everyone hopes, deliver substantial progress towards the goals of 2C on mitigation, and building resilience on the adaptation side.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/post-parismy-take-keith-alverson?trk=prof-post

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